Target Customers and Financial Analysis

The wellness raffle pilot targets 100,000 commercially insured members aged 25 to 64 who face health risks including prediabetes, obesity, or sedentary lifestyles. This group represents 0.2% of UnitedHealth Group's 50 million members, providing meaningful data while limiting risk (Mattke et al., 2013).

Outreach will occur through personalized emails, mobile app notifications, Rally Health messaging, employer partnerships, and physician office promotions during routine visits (Kreps & Neuhauser, 2010). Members are categorized by insurance plan type because different plans influence how people engage with wellness programs.

Table 1: Member Distribution by Insurance Plan Type and Gender

Member Category	Employer (Large)	Employer (Small)	Individual/Family	Medicare Advantage	Total
Male	24,000	13,000	10,000	10,000	57,000
Female	18,000	10,000	8,000	7,000	43,000
Total	42,000	23,000	18,000	17,000	100,000

This distribution reflects UnitedHealth's commercial insurance portfolio, with employer plans comprising 65% of participants. The male-to-female ratio (57:43) aligns with documented wellness program participation patterns (Goetzel et al., 2014). Plan type segmentation enables targeted communication strategies since large employers offer workplace wellness infrastructure while individual members require direct digital outreach.

Program Investment

The pilot requires $40.8 million annually, allocated across:

• Prizes and incentives: $26.4 million

• Marketing and technology: $8.0 million

• Administration and compliance: $6.4 million

The Financial Case

Research shows wellness programs generate $3.27 in savings per dollar invested (Baicker et al., 2010). Applied to this $40.8 million investment, maximum potential savings reach $133.4 million. However, first-year programs experience lower participation rates, so conservative projections use 50-70% realization rates, producing realistic savings of $66.7 to $93.4 million (Mattke et al., 2013).

Table 2: Projected Annual Savings

Category	Calculation	Savings
Preventive Care	15,000 screenings × $1,800 each	$27.0M
Chronic Disease Management	2,000 members × $10,000 avoided complications	$20.0M
Emergency Department Reduction	5,000 visits × $1,500 each	$7.5M
Hospital Readmissions	800 readmissions × $15,000 each	$12.0M
Medication Adherence	2,000 members × $4,000 prevention	$8.0M
Member Retention	3,000 members × $600 acquisition cost	$1.8M
Total		$76.3M

Return on Investment:

• Conservative scenario: ($76.3M - $40.8M) / $40.8M = 87% ROI

• Optimistic scenario: ($93.4M - $40.8M) / $40.8M = 129% ROI

Every dollar invested returns between $1.87 and $2.29 in value. Even if results reach only 60% of projections, the program still generates $5 million in net benefit.

The Cost of Doing Nothing

Without this program, the same 100,000 members will skip preventive screenings, visit emergency departments for manageable conditions, and experience preventable hospital readmissions potentially costing $76.3 million in avoidable expenses. The $40.8 million investment prevents these losses while improving member health outcomes.

Value Beyond Savings

This initiative positions UnitedHealth as a population health leader and generates valuable member engagement data for future personalized interventions (Partnership for Prevention, 2007). The quarterly structure allows rapid adjustments based on real-time results, minimizing risk while maximizing learning. Success with 100,000 members validates a model applicable to UnitedHealth's full 50-million-member base, where scaled implementation could generate $1.9 to $2.8 billion annually (American Diabetes Association, 2018).

This pilot delivers 87-129% return on investment, prevents $35.5 million in avoidable costs, and provides strategic competitive advantage. The financial case is clear, the health benefits are measurable, and the risk is contained.